Discuss the outlook for the global commodity chemicals market in the context of recent Middle East disruptions, including the implications of the Iran war for petrochemical production, feedstock costs, and export logistics. In particular, assess the importance of the Gulf region as a major exporter of petrochemicals and fertilizers, and evaluate how potential disruptions to production or shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could affect global flows of key products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, methanol, ammonia, and urea.

• Examine the demand outlook through 2026 and beyond, focusing on Asia as the primary growth engine for global chemical consumption and the outlook for key end markets such as packaging, construction, automotive, and consumer goods. Discuss demand elasticity and the implications of the Iran war for global chemical demand.
• Assess Europe’s structural cost disadvantage in energy-intensive chemical production following the Russia–Ukraine energy shock, and discuss the implications of the Iran war for European chemical companies and how it could further impact their positioning on the global cost curve.
• Evaluate which producers or regions are likely to benefit most from this disruption. Finally, assess global market balance and pricing dynamics, including the transmission of feedstock prices into petrochemical margins, and evaluate the medium-term supply outlook given the wave of new petrochemical capacity expected in China, the Middle East, and the U.S. Conclude with key upside and downside risks.