Clinical Data
The neratinib-containing regimen (neratinib plus paclitaxel followed by doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide) graduated from the I-SPY 2 TRIAL based on having a high probability of success in Phase III with a signature of HER2-positive/HR-negative. In this group, treatment with the neratinib-containing regimen resulted in an estimated pCR rate of 55.6% compared to the control arm (standard neoadjuvant chemotherapy: paclitaxel in combination with Herceptin (trastuzumab) followed by doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide) which had an estimated pCR rate of 32.6%. The Bayesian probability of superiority for the neratinib-containing regimen (compared to standard therapy) is 94.9%, which is analogous to a one-sided p-value of 0.051. In addition, the Bayesian predictive probability of showing statistical superiority in a 300-patient Phase III randomized trial of paclitaxel plus neratinib versus paclitaxel plus trastuzumab, both followed by doxorubicin/cyclophosphamide, is 79.1%.There were 115 patients assigned to neratinib in the trial, including 65 patients who were HER2-positive. For the patients in the trial who were HER2-positive (including those who were either hormone receptor-positive or negative), treatment with the neratinib-containing regimen resulted in an estimated pCR rate of 39.4% compared to the control arm, which demonstrated an estimated pCR rate of 22.8%. The Bayesian probability of superiority for the neratinib-containing regimen is 95.4%, which is analogous to a p-value of 0.046. In addition, the Bayesian predictive probability of showing statistical superiority in a 300-patient Phase III randomized trial of paclitaxel plus neratinib versus paclitaxel plus trastuzumab is 72.7%.Patients in the I-SPY 2 TRIAL were screened using the MammaPrint 70-gene signature test. The median MammaPrint score from the patients in the previous I-SPY 1 TRIAL who fit the eligibility criteria for I-SPY2 was used as a predefined stratification factor for the I-SPY 2 TRIAL. Patients in I-SPY 2 were stratified as either MammaPrint High (below the median from I-SPY 1) or MammaPrint Ultra High (above the median from I-SPY 1). For the 41 neratinib treated patients in the trial who were MammaPrint Ultra High (80.5% of which were HER2 negative), treatment with the neratinib-containing regimen resulted in an estimated pCR rate of 47.5% compared to the control arm, which demonstrated an estimated pCR rate of 29.4%. The Bayesian probability of superiority for the neratinib-containing regimen is 93.3%, which is analogous to a p-value of 0.067. In addition, the Bayesian predictive probability of showing statistical superiority in a 300-patient Phase III randomized trial of paclitaxel plus neratinib versus paclitaxel, alone for HER2-negative patients or in combination with trastuzumab for the HER2-positive patients, is 71.8%.The most frequently observed severe adverse event in the trial was diarrhea. In the neratinib treated arm of the trial 38% of the patients experienced grade 3/4 diarrhea while 4% of the patients in the control arm experienced grade 3/4 diarrhea. In several clinical trials subsequent to I-SPY 2, high dose loperamide significantly reduced the incidence of grade 3/4 diarrhea.